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| Isaiah 17 Watch | |
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| Topic Started: Jan 17 2010, 11:09 PM (3,136 Views) | |
| Wil | Jan 17 2010, 11:09 PM Post #1 |
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U.S. official: Arming of Hezbollah could spark Israel-Syria war By Jack Khoury, Haaretz Correspondent An American source says that Syria allowed Hezbollah operatives to train within its territory in the use of advanced SA2 anti-aircraft missile batteries, the Kuwaiti daily Al Rai reported Sunday. In an interview, the senior U.S. official warned that if Syria supplies Hezbollah with this type of missile, Israel will bomb Damascus and a war will likely ensue. According to the official, Israel has warned Syria not to allow the transfer of the SA2 missiles into the hands of Hezbollah, and views the transfer of such missiles as the crossing of a red line. He added that he did not believe that a war would break out soon, unless one of the sides violated the undeclared agreement not to cross the red lines defined by both sides. The Second Lebanon War, waged in 2006 between Israel and Hezbollah, turned southern Lebanon into a territory not unlike the Golan Heights, in that it does not enjoy the absence of conflict but rather a fragile cease-fire, the official said. Since the war ended, the international intelligence community and the United Nations have been closely monitoring the smuggling of weapons from Syria to Hezbollah, but the ongoing smuggling has not yet crossed the so call red lines. The official added that Israel's top priority at this point is to prevent Hezbollah from obtaining the SA2 missiles, which are controlled from a remote command center. The official stressed that if Syria turns these weapons over to Hezbollah, Israel will not hesitate to strike Syria, including the capital Damascus. http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1143146.html |
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| manolo | Jan 17 2010, 11:16 PM Post #2 |
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We know what happens to Damascus. Just a matter of time. Very interesting times we are living in. 
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| Earendel | Jan 19 2010, 06:37 PM Post #3 |
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Israeli intel: Hamas has amassed 5,000 rockets since 2009 war TEL AVIV — Israel's intelligence community has determined that Hamas was developing a capability to fire rocket salvos. The sources said Hamas, with increased help from Iran and Hizbullah, was seeking to enhance the accuracy of Palestinian unguided missiles and rockets as well as connect batteries to a command and control system. They said Hamas has accumulated more than 5,000 missiles and rockets in the aftermath of the 2009 war with Israel. http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2010/me_hamas0031_01_18.asp Israel, the United States, and the Danger of War with Iran Posted by Justin Logan Steve Hynd at Newshoggers looks at Heritage’s recent work on Iran and observes that it sure seems like they’re prepared for war. James Phillips says the Israelis may attack Iran but we shouldn’t try to stop them. Phillips notes uncritically Israeli PM Binyamin Netanyahu’s characterization of the Iranian state as a “a messianic apocalyptic cult” and points out that while the United States “has the advantage of being geographically further away from Iran than Israel and thus less vulnerable to an Iranian nuclear attack … it must be sensitive to its ally’s security perspective.” http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/2010/01/17/israel-us-danger-war-iran/ Yadlin: Turkey moving towards Islamic radicals Iran has not been deterred from its march to the nuclear bomb, and one-time ally Turkey is drawing closer to the side of Islamic radicals and further from Israel and the West, OC Military Intelligence Maj.-Gen. Amos Yadlin warned on Tuesday at the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1263147930949&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull Iran threatens to hit Gulf Published Date: January 20, 2010 TEHRAN: Iran's Defense Minister Ahamd Vahidi said yesterday that Western warships stationed in the Gulf are "best targets" for the Islamic republic if its nuclear sites are attacked, Fars news agency reported. Iranian officials have repeatedly threatened to deliver a "crushing response" and hit US targets, including its bases in the Gulf and neighboring Iraq and Afghanistan, if Iran's nuclear sites are attacked. Why are there so many warships there? The Westerners know that these warships are the best target for operation by Iran if they do anything against (us)," Vahidi told a conference in Tehran. The United States and its regional ally Israel, which accuse Iran of seeking atomic weapons under the guise of a civilian nuclear program, have never ruled out a military option to thwart Tehran's nuclear drive. Iran denies the charges and has continued to expand its nuclear program despite UN sanctions. http://www.kuwaittimes.net/read_news.php?newsid=Mzg4OTg0OTgz Sources: Iran ordered attack on Israeli convoy in Jordan Updated: Tuesday, January 19, 2010 12:30GMT—7:30AM/EST Washington, 19 January (WashingtonTV)—An attack last week on an Israeli diplomatic convoy in Jordan was apparently carried out on instructions from Iran, the Jerusalem Post reported on Tuesday, citing sources close to Jordan’s General Intelligence Department. The sources told the daily that the Jordanian agency was investigating the possibility that the explosives used in last week’s failed attempt were smuggled into Jordan by Iranian diplomats. The attack itself was apparently perpetrated by local al-Qaida supporters who received money and explosives from Tehran, the sources said. http://televisionwashington.com/floater_article1.aspx?lang=en&t=2&id=17278 Edited by Earendel, Jan 21 2010, 12:48 PM.
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Repentance is a rocky road best travelled in the day, when there is light, lest darkness comes, and I stumble in the dark...that is to say the Spirit of God will not always strive with man. I will therefore humble myself before the God of heaven and pray, who has called me with a holy calling...to walk this road of repentance..that leads to eternal life. My Webpage | |
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| Wil | Jan 22 2010, 09:33 AM Post #4 |
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Report: Hezbollah on high alert for fear of Israeli attack London-based al-Sharq al-Awsat newspaper says Shiite organization has instructed its men to take 'general precautions', Syria recruiting reserve soldiers residing in Lebanon Roee Nahmias Published: 01.22.10, 10:26 / Israel News Hezbollah has raised the alert level among its fighters due to maneuvers conducted by the Israel Defense Forces in northern Israel, London-based Arabic-language al-Sharq al-Awsat newspaper reported Friday. According to the report, the Shiite organization has instructed its men to take "general precautionary measures" for fear of a sudden Israeli attack targeting Hezbollah's headquarters and post. An organization source told the newspaper, "Thanks to Israel we have gotten accustomed to aggression, and we have gotten Israel accustomed to be on guard and to being ambushed, and this is what we'll do." The source refused to confirm or deny the reports that Hezbollah has raised its alert level, but the paper reported that the organization was on a heightened state of alert not only in southern Lebanon, but also on hills in eastern and western Lebanon overlooking the Lebanon Valley – Hezbollah's most important stronghold in the country. According to the same report, the heightened state of alert among Hezbollah members does not include the organization's civilian centers and the workers in those centers are continuing their routine jobs. Al-Sharq al-Awsat added that according to several reports, Syria has begun recruiting reserve forces, including among workers residing in Lebanon. According to the report, the laborers were requested to return to Syria and arrive at induction centers mentioned in the draft orders. The newspaper failed to get Damascus' response to this information and there is no official confirmation of this report from any other source. http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3838086,00.html |
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| Earendel | Jan 22 2010, 12:34 PM Post #5 |
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Israel Warns of 'Ever-Growing' Hizbullah Arsenal, Vows to 'Stop' Rocket Shipments from Syria, Iran ...He accused Syria and Iran without naming them of providing Hizbullah with arms and vowed to curb this. "Hizbullah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza get their rockets from neighboring countries, and that must be stopped," he warned. http://www.naharnet.com/domino/tn/NewsDesk.nsf/0/3B505C9EB53EE13AC22576B20020A71D?OpenDocument Robert Fisk: The tree-lined bunkers that could change the face of the Middle East The border looks peaceful, but Hizbollah and Israel are preparing for war Thursday, 21 January 2010 Of course, the gentle countryside is an illusion. Benjamin Netanyahu and his colleagues in the Israeli government have been announcing that the only “army” of Lebanon is the Hizbollah, the Iranian-armed and Syrian-assisted guerrilla force whose bunkers and missiles north of the Litani river might just tip the balance in the next Hizbollah-Israeli war. And Sayed Hassan Nasrallah, the chairman of the Hizbollah, has been making some even more interesting threats: that his forces will “change the face of the Middle East region” if there is another war with Israel. No-one is in much doubt about what this means. The newly resurfaced Lebanese roads near the border – courtesy of Hizbollah money – suggest that someone might want to move men at high speed towards the frontier. Perhaps even to cross the border.  An Israeli vehicle patrols the Lebanese-Israeli border as seen from Kfar Kila in south Lebanon http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/fisk/robert-fisk-the-treelined-bunkers-that-could-change-the-face-of-the-middle-east-1874228.html Syria partially mobilizes reserves as tensions rise on Israel's northern border DEBKAfile Special Report January 22, 2010, 6:30 PM (GMT+02:00)  Iranian and Syrian defense ministers shake on a military pact Friday, Jan. 22, Damascus ordered a Level 4 mobilization of Syria's army reserves for deployment to the Golan Heights on the Israeli border, to meet what it calls "IDF plans of attack." DEBKAfile's military sources interpret Level 4 as referring to Syrian armored and commando brigades. In Lebanon, too, Hizballah has placed "all its forces" on a state of military preparedness. Our intelligence sources report that this order applies to the Iranian proxy's strongholds across southern Lebanon and the Beqaa Valley, but not to its command posts in Beirut and other Lebanese cities. Damascus and Hizballah both claim that Israel has embarked on a large-scale military exercise along its northern borders to create a jumping-off point for striking Hizballah followed by raids into Syria. However, Western and Arab sources confirm that Israel made a point of reassuring Damascus and Beirut via American and UN intermediaries at the beginning of this week that the military units massed in the north were engaged solely in maneuvers with no aggressive intent. Far from being prompted by IDF war games, Syria and Hizballah are reported by our Iranian and military sources as acting out the secret military cooperation pacts they have just concluded with Tehran. The pacts were negotiated and signed during visits to Damascus by Iran's National Security Adviser Saeed Jalili on Nov. 3 and its defense minister Ahmed Vahidi on Dec. 17. These treaties commit Syria to come to Hizballah's aid if it comes under Israeli attack, and all three signatories to respond to any Israeli military movement. Our military sources believe Hizballah and Syria are taking advantage of the Israeli war game to test their own preparedness for attack on orders from Tehran. http://www2.debka.com/headline.php?hid=6470 |
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Repentance is a rocky road best travelled in the day, when there is light, lest darkness comes, and I stumble in the dark...that is to say the Spirit of God will not always strive with man. I will therefore humble myself before the God of heaven and pray, who has called me with a holy calling...to walk this road of repentance..that leads to eternal life. My Webpage | |
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| Wil | Jan 23 2010, 03:35 PM Post #6 |
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Of course he doesn't want it... Jan 23, 2010 16:52 | Updated Jan 23, 2010 21:04 PM: Israel doesn't want war with Lebanon By JPOST.COM STAFF Israel is not interested in war with Lebanon, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said in a statement Saturday, seemingly in response to a Likud minister's comment that such conflict was "inevitable." "The State of Israel does not want any confrontation with Lebanon," read a statement issued by the Prime Minister's Office. Earlier in the day, Minister-without-Portfolio Yossi Peled had said, "Without a doubt we are heading for another round (of fighting) in the North. No one knows when, but it's clear that it will happen." "We did not know that the Second Lebanon War was going to break out," the former OC Northern Command said, some three-and-a-half years after the war against Hizbullah. Also Saturday, The Washington Post reported that Hizbullah had moved long-range-missile launch pads into both northern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley, and that there was little the UN presence in the area could do to stop a war between Israel and the guerrilla group. Quoting Middle East analysts, The Washington Post report went on to say Hizbullah launch sites now likely extend past Beirut. The IDF believes that Hizbullah has obtained Iranian-made Fajr missiles, either the Fajr 3 or Fajr 5. The Fajr 3 is five meters long and can carry a 45-kilogram warhead. Lebanese MP Marwan Hamadeh was also quoted in the report, noting the influence of Iran and the United States on the regional conflict. "With Iran backing and supplying Hezbollah and the United States backing and supplying Israel, the battlefield is Lebanon," the anti-Hizbullah lawmaker reportedly said. "This is where the Iranian missiles sit, and this is where the Israeli air force can reach," he added. http://www.jpost.com/servlet |
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| Israeli | Jan 23 2010, 04:35 PM Post #7 |
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Who wants a war in which you KNOW some of your citizens are going to die. Hard choice for a PM. |
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| Earendel | Jan 24 2010, 11:23 PM Post #8 |
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Hezbollah on Alert on Israeli-Lebanese border 22/01/2010 By Thair Abbas, Nazir Majjali, Souad Jarrous and Michel Abu Najm Beirut, Paris, Damascus, Asharq Al-Awsat - Tensions have escalated along the Israeli-Lebanese border as the Israeli army carried out drills on the northern frontier. Well-informed Lebanese sources confirmed to Asharq Al-Awsat that there is a state of alert within the Hezbollah ranks as Israeli troops were called up to the northern borders to carry out “military maneuvers”. The Lebanese sources added that Hezbollah called on its cadres to be on full alert in case Israel launches a surprise attack targeting Hezbollah’s bases and posts. http://www.aawsat.com/english/news.asp?section=1&id=19612 Arab Report: Syria Calling Up Reserves by Gil Ronen (IsraelNN.com) Tensions have escalated along the Israeli-Lebanese border and Syria has begun calling up troops from its Fourth Reserve, sources told the pan-Arab daily Asharq Al-Awsat. The newspaper, printed on four continents, reports that the Israeli military has been carrying out drills on Israel's northern frontier, as the second anniversary of the death of senior Hizbullah commander Imad Mughniyeh approaches. Mughniyeh was killed when a car bomb exploded in Damascus on February 13, 2008. http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/135663 צה"ל צובר כוחות,חיזבאללה בכוננות גבוהה וצבא סוריה מגייס מילואים. Hizbullah on Alert as Syria Reportedly Called Up Reserve Units Hizbullah members were said to have been put on high alert as Israeli troops continued to mass along the border with Lebanon under the pretext of military maneuvers, pan-Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat reported Friday. It cited well-informed Hizbullah sources as saying that Hizbullah has ordered its members to be on "high alert in the event of a surprise Israeli operation against party headquarters and positions." Asharq al-Awsat said it has obtained information that Syria has begun calling up its reserve units, including workers living in Lebanon. The report said Syrian workers were told by their parents about the need to return and join the positions assigned to them. Beirut, 22 Jan 10, 09:12 http://www.fresh.co.il/vBulletin/showthread.php?t=501624 Israeli minister: Third war on Lebanon in sight  Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (C) meets with Israeli soldiers. An Israeli cabinet minister warns of the third Israeli war on Lebanon amid reports that Tel Aviv has mobilized its troops. "We are heading toward a new confrontation in the north," said minister without portfolio, Yossi Peled in remarks carried by military radio and the Israeli news website Ynet, the AFP reported. The London-based A-Sharq al-Awsat newspaper reported Friday that the troops had been called to the northern the borders Lebanon to carry out "military maneuvers." "I don't know when it will happen, just as we did not know when the second Lebanon war would erupt," Peled added... http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=116866§ionid=351020202 |
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Repentance is a rocky road best travelled in the day, when there is light, lest darkness comes, and I stumble in the dark...that is to say the Spirit of God will not always strive with man. I will therefore humble myself before the God of heaven and pray, who has called me with a holy calling...to walk this road of repentance..that leads to eternal life. My Webpage | |
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| Wil | Jan 26 2010, 03:22 PM Post #9 |
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Barak: If we have to fight Syria– we’ll defeat them Published: 01.26.10, 12:20 / Israel News Defense Minister Ehud Barak told high school students that if Israel would be forced to fight Syria, “we won’t fear and we’ll defeat them.” (Raanan Ben-Zur) http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3839765,00.html -------------- War with Lebanon Imminent by Dr. Mordechai Nisan Radical Islam is transnational and Lebanon is one of its targets. The only way to save Lebanon is by military means. Lebanon is tittering between political bombast and trembling fear. While Hizbullah deputy-head Naim Kassem threatens Israel with missile attacks, the Beirut politicians including Prime Minister Saad Hariri, hear with trepidation Israeli threats to “destroy the infrastructures” of Lebanon, and not only Hizbullah sites, in the next round of fighting. Israeli Minister Yossi Peled cautioned that the next round after the summer war of 2006 is most likely in the offing during 2010. It is not Israel which is the cause of the persistent slide toward warfare, for she would be content with a quiet border. It is Lebanon, most specifically ‘Hizbullah-bulling’ These forces undermine and destroy domestic regimes that are deemed religiously unworthy of political legitimacy. Lebanon that is committed to jihad and a changed status These forces undermine and destroy domestic regimes that are deemed religiously unworthy of political legitimacy. quo. This situation offers no escape from a military confrontation. ***** A network of global Islamic terrorism stretches across countries and continents with the goal of establishing universal Muslim rule in the world. This is defined as the restoration of the early caliphate, the victory of believers over infidels, the triumph of justice against oppression – based on the nullification of all religions other than Islam. The leading forces in this massive campaign include the Wahhabi kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the Muslim Brotherhood centered in Egypt, Al-Qaeda of Osama bin-Laden, and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Intersecting alliances link them and local Middle Eastern proxies, like Hizbullah and Hamas, together. A most central ambition of these forces is to undermine and destroy domestic regimes that are deemed religiously unworthy of political legitimacy. It was the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979 against the Shah’s monarchy that serves as the modern model for boundless combat within any country, until Islamic victory is consummated. The assassination of Anwar Sadat by the Jihad Organization in 1981 removed an Egyptian president, though failed to oust a heretical regime from power. Islamic warfare against ‘virtual’ Muslims, who are deprecated as apostates or non-believers, seeks to deny power to such odious deviants. This outlook illuminates the many internal Muslim war theatres today. The ongoing Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan against the Karazai government has not ceased since 2001. In Iraq, the post-2003 governments have been confounded by Islamic terrorism, both Shiite and Sunni, in a relentless effort by the rebels to prevent the consolidation of a regime, that disavows Islamic fundamentalism and, no less grievously, is politically linked to America. In the Palestinian arena Hamas and Islamic Jihad challenge Fatah/PLO, both at the ballot box and in the streets, for political primacy. When the PLO ruled in a singular fashion from 1993 until 2006, Hamas defiantly refused to disarm and submit to the Palestinian Authority. ***** The scenario of violent and militant Islam unbound and unrepentant is clearly at the root of the Lebanese political imbroglio. As a proxy of Iran, Hizbullah is aligned with Islamic revolution while aiming to de-Christianize and Islamicize all Lebanon, mocking A political solution to the problem with Hizbullah, like other Islamic country-case armed movements, does not exist. the rich cultural strands of the yet singular Lebanese nationality. It defies the A political solution to the problem with Hizbullah, like other Islamic country-case armed movements, does not exist. international community’s call for its disarmament, which is also the aspiration of most Lebanese citizens. Hizbullah is nothing less than the arch-enemy of Lebanon’s soul and sovereignty, while feigning to be its savior from Israel. As in Algeria, Pakistan, and Morocco, transnational Islam relentlessly challenges existing governmental authority in the name of pure, authentic, classical Islam. This kind of Muslim-Muslim Islamic jihad is unwilling, either to respect existing national institutions and tow the line, or honor the will of the majority and the sanctity of national narratives. Islamic movements and militias that either suffer a setback or have yet to secure a victory never agree to relinquish their weapons. Therefore, no alternative method will effectively save Lebanon until some force decisively defeats and forcibly disarms Hizbullah. A political solution to the problem with Hizbullah, like other Islamic country-case armed movements, does not exist. The solution is just a matter of time, because history has taught us that, in the end, the arrogant and haughty always fall from power. http://www.israelnationalnews.com/Articles/Article.aspx/9276 |
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| Josepha | Jan 26 2010, 03:30 PM Post #10 |
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A religion can not be based on hatred. A house divided can not stand. Those that exalt themselves will be humbled. In Jesus Holy Name, Amen. |
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| Wil | Jan 28 2010, 08:42 PM Post #11 |
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http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/ Analysis: Lebanon: Conflict widens to Syria – Jonathan Spyer Any future strike at Hizbullah that does not take into account its status as a client of Syria, is unlikely to land a decisive blow. In the last week, senior Israeli policymakers made statements of an uncharacteristically bellicose nature regarding Syria. It is unlikely that these statements were made because of sudden random irritation toward Israel's hostile northeastern neighbor. Rather, the statements probably constituted part of a message of deterrence to Damascus. The need to project deterrence itself derives from a series of significant changes currently under way on the ground in Lebanon - reflecting Syria's ever tighter alignment with Hizbullah and the pro-Iranian regional bloc of which it is a part. These changes take place against the backdrop of awareness that the tactics likely to be adopted by Israel in a future war with Hizbullah carry with them the very real possibility that Syria could, on one level or another, be drawn in. Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon, meeting with Michael Williams, the UN special coordinator for Lebanon earlier this week, expressed his concern that Hizbullah fighters have been training on surface-to-surface missile systems in Syria. Then, on Tuesday, Defense Minister Ehud Barak noted in a speech that if Israel was forced to fight Syria, "we won't fear and we'll defeat them." Why the sudden ministerial loquaciousness? It may with some justification be asserted that to assume any coordination behind the statements of Israeli ministers is to betray a touching naivete. All the same, the near-simultaneous ministerial recollection of the Syrian threat should be considered in conjunction with the following facts: Hizbullah has in the last weeks deployed advanced Syrian-made surface-to-surface M-600 missiles on the territory of Lebanon. The missiles, which according to Jane's Defence Weekly are copies of the Iranian Fateh-110 system, have a range of 250 kilometers and carry a 500-kg warhead. They bring the entirety of central Israel within Hizbullah's range. The missiles are precision-guided, meaning that in the event of renewed conflict, Hizbullah would be able to use them to target military facilities or heavily populated areas. According to Jane's, the deployment of the M-600s adds to concerns already expressed by Israel at Syrian supplying of the (relatively unsophisticated) SA-2 air defense system and the SS-N-26 surface-to-sea missile to Hizbullah. Syria's undaunted and increased support for Hizbullah appears to reflect a clear strategic turn taken by Damascus. Lebanese analyst Tony Badran this week drew attention to a recent and relevant report in the Qatari daily al-Watan which quoted Syrian sources who claimed that "a strategic decision has been taken not to allow Israel to defeat the resistance movements." Such statements, if genuine, indicate that the Syrian regime is aware of the potential price to be paid for its current orientation, but feels that the risk is worth taking. The Syrians have not, according to available evidence, yet passed the point of no return - which, as Badran notes, would be the provision of sophisticated anti-aircraft systems to Hizbullah. The SA-2, if deployed, could constitute a danger to IAF helicopters, but not aircraft. Israel has made clear that the deployment of systems capable of threatening Israeli aircraft by Hizbullah would constitute a casus belli. But beyond the specific issue of weapons systems, the logic of confrontation in Lebanon suggests that Syria may find it hard to avoid direct engagement in a future Israel-Hizbullah clash. Since 2006, Lebanon's eastern border with Syria has formed the key conduit for weapons supplies to Hizbullah. And Hizbullah is reported to have relocated its main military infrastructure north of the Litani River, in the Bekaa Valley, in areas close to the Syrian border. Which suggests that if Israel wants in a future conflict to strike a real blow against Hizbullah, this implies an Israeli ground incursion into the Bekaa. Should such an incursion take place, the Syrians would be intimately involved in supplying Hizbullah just across the border, and the possibility of Syrian casualties at Israeli hands would become very real. It is again worth remembering that on August 4, 2006, 34 Syrians were killed when the IAF bombed a packing house on the Syrian side of the border thought to contain weapons for Hizbullah. The Syrians did not respond at that time. But an Israeli incursion into the Bekaa would logically raise the question of either the Syrians ceasing their real-time supplying of Hizbullah (very unlikely), or Israel acting to prevent this. Of course, the point of deterrence is to deter. The ominous statements from Israeli officials are not meant to signal an imminent war. Rather, they are intended to convey to the Syrians that they should not think their alliance with Hizbullah is cost free, and that they would be advised to adhere to red lines. The developing logic of the situation in Lebanon is nevertheless widening the circle of future conflict. The bottom line is that any future strike at Hizbullah that does not take into account its status as a client of Iran and Syria, is unlikely to be able to land the kind of decisive blow to the organization which alone would justify such a strike. Israel and Hizbollah have exchanged threats in recent weeks, warning of the dire consequences of a new war between Lebanon and Israel. This has detracted somewhat from the possibility of an Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear facilities, amid growing signs that the international community, and the US in particular, has no decisive leverage to discourage Tehran from building a nuclear device. No one doubts that Israel has a contingency plan, and the will, to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities. However, the political costs of such action may be so prohibitive, and the chances of military success so uncertain, that the probability of Israel going through with it may be far lower than Israeli officials, keen to display their brinkmanship, let on. The motive for an attack is rising by the day. Iran has not altered course, and evidently sees no reason to. The five permanent members of the Security Council and Germany met recently to discuss imposing new sanctions, but China, with its expanding economic ties with Tehran, remained unresponsive. Even there the nature of the sanctions is instructive: they are designed to target regime power centers, such as the Revolutionary Guards – hardly enough to halt the nuclear program. Gone from the mix is the use of armed force against Iran. The international community’s sole weapon is diplomacy, and if that fails, sanctions. Complicating matters is the domestic turmoil in Iran, which has obstructed progress in two ways: it has validated a view among Iran’s interlocutors that internal Iranian divisions make conclusive talks with the regime difficult, which Tehran has exploited to buy time; and it has discouraged the US in particular from resorting to war, since this might unite Iranians and strengthen the regime, undermining prospects that its legitimacy crisis will erode its authority. All this is alarming enough for Israel that it is surely accelerating its preparations for war. Yet playing against this outcome are several factors, most of them touching on vital US interests. For the Israelis, the optimal situation would be one where Washington undertakes a military operation itself. Given the Americans’ deployment near Iran, their naval and guided missile capability, and that their contingency plans include a much wider target list than just nuclear facilities, the Israelis have, sensibly, sought to persuade the US of the necessity of an attack, even as they have asked for Washington’s green light to do so themselves. It is almost impossible to imagine that the Israelis would take action without prior American approval. To grant that approval, however, the Obama administration and US commanders would have to be prepared to absorb the consequences for their own regional priorities. Iran could not only be expected to retaliate against Israel directly, using its long-range missiles, but also indirectly through Hizbollah, firing from Lebanon. That, in turn, could provoke a regional conflagration that draws in Syria, possibly also Hamas, with a very good chance that it would all leave the administration’s Middle Eastern peace strategy in tatters. More significantly, Iran would unquestionably retaliate against the US and maybe its friends in the Gulf. We should not over-estimate Tehran’s capacity to spawn an uprising in Iraq, particularly since the Americans are withdrawing. However, other American allies, such as Saudi Arabia, but also Bahrain, and even the UAE and Qatar, could find themselves in the line of fire. The Iranian rejoinder need not be subtle, or even entirely successful, to create a major headache for the Obama administration, since controlling the consequences would be tricky. Chaos benefits the regime in Tehran more than it does the US, the defender of the region’s status quo and pillar of its security order. Then there is Afghanistan and Pakistan. Iran has plenty of latitude to make life difficult for Nato in Afghanistan, and it doesn’t take much imagination to foresee how an American-authorized Israeli attack against Iran would play out in Pakistan, given the mood there. The combination of both factors could cripple Mr Obama’s Afghan strategy, which is already hampered by delays in troop deployments and the reticence of American allies. Iran has the scope to respond in a multifaceted way to any American or Israeli military operation – from Lebanon, possibly from Gaza as well, in the Gulf and in Afghanistan – all areas away from Iranian territory. Neither the US nor Israel can do the same, which will, in turn, make them both more reliant on a rapid escalation of force. In other words, Iran can play on the multiple political contradictions in the region, while the US and Israel, by responding through the only means readily at their disposal, military power, would only heighten these contradictions. All this still does not mean that Israel will refrain from attacking Iran. But with the potential repercussions so risky and the international community cold towards any sort of military operation, we may steadily be moving closer to an American, and international, Plan B: the acceptance of Iranian nuclear weapons, then containment through nuclear deterrence and other multilateral means. That said, so clear a statement of purpose has yet to be publicly expressed in Washington, and the bureaucracy has not reached a consensus. Despite Israel’s conviction that an Iranian nuclear weapon represents a mortal threat, this view may have to be mitigated. Those entitled to fear Iran most are the Gulf states, who have no nuclear deterrent. Under present circumstances, an Israeli assault would open a Pandora’s box with aftershocks that the Obama administration is deeply reluctant to face. And when Washington is helpless, Israel has little room to dissent. |
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| Earendel | Jan 28 2010, 09:28 PM Post #12 |
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At The Mouth Of The Volcano ...Signs indicative of an impending explosion are coming from every side: from Iran, Lebanon, the West Bank, the Gaza Strip and also Israel, which is on its own against them all. Instead of trying to calm the situation, the region's leader are sharpening their swords and trading verbal barbs. The evident weakness of the "world's policeman" is encouraging local leaders to take risks... ...On the Iranian front, an arms race is taking place, along with one of escalating threats. Iran is developing nuclear weapons; Israel is threatening to launch a preventive war and bomb Iran's nuclear facilities; and the Iranians are threatening to destroy Tel Aviv in retaliation. The military preparations on both sides bolster the credibility of their threats: Israel has increased its defense budget and the Israel Air Force is training for a long-range attack, while Iran is testing surface-to-surface missiles. Iran is arming Hezbollah and Hamas with missiles that can reach central Israel, and Israel is developing missile defense systems and preparing the home front for war. Israel plans to hold a huge nationwide exercise in May; the cabinet has decided to distribute gas masks to the entire population; and rescue crews were sent to Haiti to gain experience in dealing with a massive disaster. Iran has signed a defensive alliance with Syria and strengthened its ties with Turkey, while Israel has grown closer to Egypt... ...Israel is in strategic trouble. Netanyahu warned at Yad Vashem on Monday about "calls to destroy the Jewish state" and challenged the world to "deal with this evil before it spreads." But the world is turning its back on Israel, which it views as an occupying pariah state led by an extreme right-wing government... http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1145473.html Israel's Next Hizbullah War May Escalate Into Fight With Lebanon  (IsraelNN.com) If Israel and Hizbullah ever go to battle again, it may lead to a full-out war between the Jewish State and Lebanon. According to the Washington Post, Hizbullah's rearmament deep in northern Lebanon would force Israel to fight the terrorist army far past the border. http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/135721 Peres: Iran seeks to take control of Mideast Iran is the world's "center of terror" which seeks to impose its will on the Middle East, President Shimon Peres said Tuesday during a historic visit to Berlin. "Ahmadinejad's regime is openly calling for Israel's destruction, denying the Holocaust, and preventing peace with the Palestinians. It is destabilizing Lebanon and Yemen and trying to take over Iraq," Peres said on the eve of his address to the Bundestag... ..Earlier Tuesday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel told Peres that February will be a "decisive" month in the West's diplomatic standoff with Iran over its alleged nuclear program... http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1145264.html Libya is first Mid East recipient of Russian top-line S-300 denied Tehran  Libyan defense minister Younis Jaber arrived in Moscow Tuesday, Jan. 26 to sign a $2 billion military acquisitions deal that makes his country the first in the Middle East to obtain the top-of-the-line S-300 PMU-2 interceptors which Russia is holding back from Iran. DEBKAfile's military sources report that Tripoli has purchased two brigades of four missile batteries each, conditional on their delivery by the end of 2010. http://www.debka.com/article/8556/ |
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Repentance is a rocky road best travelled in the day, when there is light, lest darkness comes, and I stumble in the dark...that is to say the Spirit of God will not always strive with man. I will therefore humble myself before the God of heaven and pray, who has called me with a holy calling...to walk this road of repentance..that leads to eternal life. My Webpage | |
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| Sounding The Trumpet | Jan 29 2010, 03:55 AM Post #13 |
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The plot thickens! |
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| Wil | Jan 31 2010, 11:16 AM Post #14 |
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U.S. official: Hezbollah arms flow may signal plans for war with Israel By Avi Issacharoff, Haaretz Correspondent The U.S. is concerned that the continued flow of arms to the Hezbollah militant organization could prompt a war between Israel and Lebanon, State Department official Jeff Feltman said in remarks published Sunday by the London-based Al-Hayat daily. Feltman, who serves as Assistant Secretary of U.S. State Department's Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, told the daily that the U.S. had no evidence of any Israeli plan to attack its northern neighbor. Nevertheless, Feltman said he was growing increasingly worried by reports describing the quantity and types of weapons being smuggled to the terrorist organization in clear violation of United Nations Resolution 1701, which put an end to the 2006 war. The UN resolution clearly demanded a weapons-free south Lebanon, said Feltman, but the world had yet to see that put into play. With regard to the possibility of a future peace deal between Lebanon and Israel, Feltman said that he believed Lebanon preferred to see a Palestinian-Israeli agreement reached first. When asked about negotiations between Syria and Israel, Feltman said U.S. special Mideast envoy George Mitchell had passed on to Jerusalem a message from Damascus on the matter, but that progress was slow. Feltman also said that the U.S. wanted to see the Palestinian Authority resume negotiations with Israel in order to resolve the issue of West Bank settlements. Once borders were determined, said Feltman, the issue of settlements would be easier to solve. http://haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1146410.html |
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| Earendel | Feb 1 2010, 01:51 AM Post #15 |
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Lebanon: Conflict Widens to Syria Jonathan Spyer, Ph.D. - 2/1/2010 In the last week, senior Israeli policymakers made statements of an uncharacteristically bellicose nature regarding Syria. It is unlikely that these statements were made because of sudden random irritation toward Israel's hostile northeastern neighbor. Rather, the statements probably constituted part of a message of deterrence to Damascus. The need to project deterrence itself derives from a series of significant changes currently under way on the ground in Lebanon - reflecting Syria's ever tighter alignment with Hizbullah and the pro-Iranian regional bloc of which it is a part. These changes take place against the backdrop of awareness that the tactics likely to be adopted by Israel in a future war with Hizbullah carry with them the very real possibility that Syria could, on one level or another, be drawn in. On Saturday night, Minister-without-Portfolio Yossi Peled said that another conflict on the northern border was a "matter of time." Peled noted that in the event of such a conflict breaking out, Israel would hold "Syria and Lebanon alike responsible." Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon, meeting with Michael Williams, the UN special coordinator for Lebanon earlier this week, expressed his concern that Hizbullah fighters have been training on surface-to-surface missile systems in Syria. Then, on Tuesday, Defense Minister Ehud Barak noted in a speech that if Israel was forced to fight Syria, "we won't fear and we'll defeat them." Why the sudden ministerial loquaciousness? It may with some justification be asserted that to assume any coordination behind the statements of Israeli ministers is to betray a touching naivete. All the same, the near-simultaneous ministerial recollection of the Syrian threat should be considered in conjunction with the following facts: Hizbullah has in the last weeks deployed advanced Syrian-made surface-to-surface M-600 missiles on the territory of Lebanon. The missiles, which according to Jane's Defence Weekly are copies of the Iranian Fateh-110 system, have a range of 250 kilometers and carry a 500-kg warhead. They bring the entirety of central Israel within Hizbullah's range. The missiles are precision-guided, meaning that in the event of renewed conflict, Hizbullah would be able to use them to target military facilities or heavily populated areas. According to Jane's, the deployment of the M-600s adds to concerns already expressed by Israel at Syrian supplying of the (relatively unsophisticated) SA-2 air defense system and the SS-N-26 surface-to-sea missile to Hizbullah. Syria's undaunted and increased support for Hizbullah appears to reflect a clear strategic turn taken by Damascus. Lebanese analyst Tony Badran this week drew attention to a recent and relevant report in the Qatari daily al-Watan which quoted Syrian sources who claimed that "a strategic decision has been taken not to allow Israel to defeat the resistance movements." Such statements, if genuine, indicate that the Syrian regime is aware of the potential price to be paid for its current orientation, but feels that the risk is worth taking. The Syrians have not, according to available evidence, yet passed the point of no return - which, as Badran notes, would be the provision of sophisticated anti-aircraft systems to Hizbullah. The SA-2, if deployed, could constitute a danger to IAF helicopters, but not aircraft. Israel has made clear that the deployment of systems capable of threatening Israeli aircraft by Hizbullah would constitute a casus belli. But beyond the specific issue of weapons systems, the logic of confrontation in Lebanon suggests that Syria may find it hard to avoid direct engagement in a future Israel-Hizbullah clash. Since 2006, Lebanon's eastern border with Syria has formed the key conduit for weapons supplies to Hizbullah. And Hizbullah is reported to have relocated its main military infrastructure north of the Litani River, in the Bekaa Valley, in areas close to the Syrian border. Which suggests that if Israel wants in a future conflict to strike a real blow against Hizbullah, this implies an Israeli ground incursion into the Bekaa. Should such an incursion take place, the Syrians would be intimately involved in supplying Hizbullah just across the border, and the possibility of Syrian casualties at Israeli hands would become very real. It is again worth remembering that on August 4, 2006, 34 Syrians were killed when the IAF bombed a packing house on the Syrian side of the border thought to contain weapons for Hizbullah. The Syrians did not respond at that time. But an Israeli incursion into the Bekaa would logically raise the question of either the Syrians ceasing their real-time supplying of Hizbullah (very unlikely), or Israel acting to prevent this. Of course, the point of deterrence is to deter. The ominous statements from Israeli officials are not meant to signal an imminent war. Rather, they are intended to convey to the Syrians that they should not think their alliance with Hizbullah is cost free, and that they would be advised to adhere to red lines. The developing logic of the situation in Lebanon is nevertheless widening the circle of future conflict. The bottom line is that any future strike at Hizbullah that does not take into account its status as a client of Iran and Syria, is unlikely to be able to land the kind of decisive blow to the organization which alone would justify such a strike. http://www.globalpolitician.com/26203-lebanon-syria |
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Repentance is a rocky road best travelled in the day, when there is light, lest darkness comes, and I stumble in the dark...that is to say the Spirit of God will not always strive with man. I will therefore humble myself before the God of heaven and pray, who has called me with a holy calling...to walk this road of repentance..that leads to eternal life. My Webpage | |
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| Earendel | Feb 1 2010, 01:57 AM Post #16 |
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US speeds up its own and Gulf allies' preparations for clash with Iran  Aegis, US anti-missile missile The Obama administration took the unusual step Saturday night, Jan. 30, of leaking word to major US media that the United States, Saudi Arabia and Gulf allies - the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Bahrain - have accelerated the deployment of new defenses against possible Iranian missile attacks. They are preparing for Iran, or its surrogate Hizballah, to hit back for a possible US or strikes on Tehran's nuclear facilities. DEBKAfile's US military sources confirm that Washington plans to treble the 10,000-strong US troop contingent, already present in Saudi Arabia for guarding its oil fields and port facilities against medium or short-range Iranian missile attack, or sabotage by Hizballah marine units trained for their mission by Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps. Additional US Aegis missile interceptor cruisers with advanced radar and anti-missile systems were also reported to be heading for round-the-clock patrol around Iranian shores, with more Patriot anti-missile missiles to reinforce the eight batteries already deployed in the four emirates. The Obama administration set these exceptional steps in motion, DEBKAfile reports, in anticipation of nuclear provocations from Tehran while the regime celebrates the 31st anniversary of the Islamic revolution from Feb.1-11. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has promised to announce Iran's attainment of a 20 percent uranium enrichment capability, a short step to weapons grade material. Some high-ranking Revolutionary Guards officers have also said that Iran will parade a new type of surface missile during the celebrations, without revealing its features, while Iranian space scientists predicted the launch of a new spy satellite of the Toloo series. All this was taken in Washington as a challenge that could not be left without an appropriate response. Administration officials also feared that Israel might be goaded into going forward with a military operation against Iran's nuclear facilities. The Gulf Arab states were in need of reassurance too. The White House's decision to deploy additional defenses in the Gulf came only a day after National Security Adviser James Jones warned that Iran was liable to react to pressure by having its proxies Hizballah and Hamas attack Israel. The abruptness of this step pointed to the administration having woken up to the realization that its diplomatic and military position in the region was in grave jeopardy and in dire need of shoring up without delay. http://www.debka.com/article/8573/ |
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Repentance is a rocky road best travelled in the day, when there is light, lest darkness comes, and I stumble in the dark...that is to say the Spirit of God will not always strive with man. I will therefore humble myself before the God of heaven and pray, who has called me with a holy calling...to walk this road of repentance..that leads to eternal life. My Webpage | |
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| Wil | Feb 3 2010, 03:07 PM Post #17 |
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Assad: Israel leading the Middle East to war By Jack Khoury, Haaretz Correspondent, and Haaretz Service Syrian President Bashar Assad said on Wednesday that Israel is not serious about its intentions to make peace with Damascus as evidenced by "its conduct which is leading the region to war." The Syrian leader made those statements during a meeting with Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Moratinos in Damascus on Wednesday. According to a report on Syrian state television, Moratinos told Assad that the urgent diplomatic issues of the Middle East will be at the top of the European Union's agenda. Spain assumed the rotating presidency of the EU. Earlier on Wednesday, Assad's foreign minister issued a strongly-worded warning to Israel that a future war between the two countries would be a "comprehensive" clash that would "come to your cities," CBS News reported. Just days after Defense Minister Ehud Barak cautioned that the stalled peace process with Syria is liable to deteriorate into all-out war, Foreign Minister Walid Moallem lashed out at Jerusalem. "Israel is indeed planting the seeds of war in the region, I would tell them stop playing the role of thugs in the Middle East," Moallem told reporters Tuesday in Damascus. "One day you threaten Gaza, next day you threaten Lebanon, later Iran and now Syria," Moallem told a joint news conference with Moratinos. "Don't test, you Israelis, the determination of Syria. You know that war this time would move to your cities. Come to your senses and choose the road of peace. This path is clear," Moallem warned. "No doubt, if we assume that this war would erupt - and we should not exclude this possibility from an entity established on expansion - I would say it is going to be a comprehensive war, whether it starts in the south of Lebanon or from Syria," Moallem said. According to CBS News, Moratinos said during the news conference that he had left Israel with the impression that the country was in no mood for conflict. "I came in from Israel after meetings with most senior officials there, and I would tell you that I heard no drums of war, rather I felt a desire for peace," the Spanish foreign minister said. Moallem: U.S. requests accreditation for new envoy The United States has issued a formal request to accredit a new American ambassador to Damascus, Moallem told reporters on Wednesday. Robert Ford, the envoy to be, will be the first U.S. ambassador to Damascus since the Bush administration called back its envoy as a response to the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in February of 2005. "The United States has nominated an ambassador. This is an American sovereign issue and it is Syria's right to study the nomination," Moallem told reporters in Damascus. http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1147285.html |
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| Josepha | Feb 3 2010, 03:44 PM Post #18 |
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Damascus is like a city sitting on a sponge, due to its many underground tunnels. In those tunnels there are weapons stored. It will take exactly ONE missile to hit the center and Damascus is no more. I would certainly not want to be in Syria's shoes. |
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| Earendel | Feb 6 2010, 02:06 AM Post #19 |
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Iranian missile airlift stiffens Syrian war talk, tops up Hizballah, Hamas  DEBKAfile Iranian and military sources report the war threats from Damascus this week were backed by massive Iranian airlifts for boosting Syria's missile arsenal. Fresh supplies also reached the Lebanese Hizballah and Hamas in Gaza. Wednesday, Feb. 3, Syrian president Bashar Assad accused Israel of seeking war, while his foreign minister Walid Moallem boasted: "You know that war at this time will come to your cities." They spoke after taking delivery of 100 new medium-range surface-to-surface missiles from Iran in January.... http://www.debka.com/article/8589/ Also reported here: Beating the War Drums The volume of the war drums beating in the Middle East has gone to forte. Debka is reporting here that the Syrians are receiving massive loads of missiles via air from Iran. Fresh supplies also reached the Lebanese Hizballah and Hamas in Gaza. Wednesday, Feb. 3, Syrian president Bashar Assad accused Israel of seeking war, while his foreign minister Walid Moallem boasted: “You know that war at this time will come to your cities.” They spoke after taking delivery of 100 new medium-range surface-to-surface missiles from Iran in January. Moallem’s threat was comprehensive: “….Syria calls on Israel to halt directing threats once against Gaza, another against South Lebanon, then Iran and now Syria.” Part of the Israeli response was Israel’s prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu commented nonchalantly that he does not understand what the Bashar Assad wants, confiding to his aides that his goal is to gain international goodwill before Israel decides to attack Iran. Next day, Feb. 4, hardline foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman was more outspoken: “Assad must be told bluntly,” he said, “that in the next war, not only will Syria be beaten but he and his family will lose power. You will not remain in power, and neither will your family.” Please read the entire article. Analysis. The last time that the Israelis came close to removing the Assad family from power we almost went to nuclear war. Lieberman is not the only leader in the Middle East that would like to see Bashar’s head removed from his body. Both President Mubarak of Egypt and King Abdullah II of Jordan have no love for the Assad family and the Baath movement in general. What has changed is the Syrian threat to launch its missiles should Israel repeat its “Cast Lead” operation to stop Hamas from shelling southern Israel. In combination with Hezbollah Syria has basically told Israel they they are surrounded and must absorb the attacks without retaliation or there will be regional war. There will be regional war anyway. The only question right now is who pulls the trigger first. Both sides would like the other to be labeled the aggressor. However, the internal situation in Iran may push the mullahs to begin the war before they loose power to the revolutionaries. Updates on the situation in Iran will be posted shortly. Suffice it to say the situation in Iran is deteriorating at an increasing pace. http://www.worldthreats.com/?p=2102 |
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Repentance is a rocky road best travelled in the day, when there is light, lest darkness comes, and I stumble in the dark...that is to say the Spirit of God will not always strive with man. I will therefore humble myself before the God of heaven and pray, who has called me with a holy calling...to walk this road of repentance..that leads to eternal life. My Webpage | |
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| Josepha | Feb 6 2010, 08:56 AM Post #20 |
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1 Kings 20 [28] And there came a man of God, and spake unto the king of Israel, and said, Thus saith the LORD, Because the Syrians have said, The LORD is God of the hills, but he is not God of the valleys, therefore will I deliver all this great multitude into thine hand, and ye shall know that I am the LORD. [29] And they pitched one over against the other seven days. And so it was, that in the seventh day the battle was joined: and the children of Israel slew of the Syrians an hundred thousand footmen in one day. |
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11:16 PM Jul 29
