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| Georgia/Russia War Intel - Stratfor | |
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| Topic Started: Aug 9 2008, 12:44 AM (1,197 Views) | |
| Wil | Aug 9 2008, 12:44 AM Post #1 |
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http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/intelligence_guidance_conflict_south_ossetia Stratfor Red Alert Intelligence Guidance: The Conflict in South Ossetia August 8, 2008 | 1738 GMT The following are internal Stratfor documents produced to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. These documents are not forecasts, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus. Given the speed with which the Russians reacted to Georgia’s incursion into South Ossetia, Moscow was clearly ready to intervene. We suspect the Georgians were set up for this in some way, but at this point the buildup to the conflict no longer matters. What matters is the message that Russia is sending to the West. Russian President Dmitri Medvedev summed this message up best: “Historically Russia has been, and will continue to be, a guarantor of security for peoples of the Caucasus.” Strategically, we said Russia would respond to Kosovo’s independence, and they have. Russia is now declaring the Caucasus to be part of its sphere of influence. We have spoken for months of how Russia would find a window of opportunity to redefine the region. This is happening now. All too familiar with the sight of Russian tanks, the Baltic countries are terrified of what they face in the long run, and they should be. This is the first major Russian intervention since the fall of the Soviet Union. Yes, Russia has been involved elsewhere. Yes, Russia has fought. But this is on a new order of confidence and indifference to general opinion. We will look at this as a defining moment. The most important reaction will not be in the United States or Western Europe. It is the reaction in the former Soviet states that matters most right now. That is the real audience for this. Watch the reaction of Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Nagorno-Karabakh and the Balts. How will Russia’s moves affect them psychologically? The Russians hold a trump card with the Americans: Iran. They can flood Iran with weapons at will. The main U.S. counter is in Ukraine and Central Asia, but is not nearly as painful. Tactically, there is only one issue: Will the Russians attack Georgia on the ground? If they are going to, the Russians have likely made that decision days ago. Focus on whether Russia invades Georgia proper. Then watch the former Soviet states. The United States and Germany are of secondary interest at this point. |
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| Wil | Aug 9 2008, 01:15 AM Post #2 |
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Joel C. Rosenberg: Observers of Biblical prophecies such as Ezekiel 38 and 39 will note that directly or effectively controlling Georgia would be key when Moscow one day begins moving Russian military forces through Turkey and into Lebanon, Syria and eventually against Israel. |
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| nightbird | Aug 9 2008, 07:51 AM Post #3 |
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Israel backs Georgia battle with Russia Israel backs Georgia in Caspian Oil Pipeline Battle with Russia DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 8, 2008 Georgian tanks and infantry, aided by Israeli military advisers, captured the capital of breakaway South Ossetia, Tskhinvali, early Friday, Aug. 8, bringing the Georgian-Russian conflict over the province to a military climax. Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin threatened a “military response.” Former Soviet Georgia called up its military reserves after Russian warplanes bombed its new positions in the renegade province. In Moscow’s first response to the fall of Tskhinvali, president Dimitry Medvedev ordered the Russian army to prepare for a national emergency after calling the UN Security Council into emergency session early Friday. Reinforcements were rushed to the Russian “peacekeeping force” present in the region to support the separatists. Georgian tanks entered the capital after heavy overnight heavy aerial strikes, in which dozens of people were killed. Lado Gurgenidze, Georgia's prime minister, said on Friday that Georgia will continue its military operation in South Ossetia until a "durable peace" is reached. "As soon as a durable peace takes hold we need to move forward with dialogue and peaceful negotiations." DEBKAfile’s geopolitical experts note that on the surface level, the Russians are backing the separatists of S. Ossetia and neighboring Abkhazia as payback for the strengthening of American influence in tiny Georgia and its 4.5 million inhabitants. However, more immediately, the conflict has been sparked by the race for control over the pipelines carrying oil and gas out of the Caspian region. The Russians may just bear with the pro-US Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvili’s ambition to bring his country into NATO. But they draw a heavy line against his plans and those of Western oil companies, including Israeli firms, to route the oil routes from Azerbaijan and the gas lines from Turkmenistan, which transit Georgia, through Turkey instead of hooking them up to Russian pipelines. Saakashvili need only back away from this plan for Moscow to ditch the two provinces’ revolt against Tbilisi. As long as he sticks to his guns, South Ossetia and Abkhazia will wage separatist wars. DEBKAfile discloses Israel’s interest in the conflict from its exclusive military sources: Jerusalem owns a strong interest in Caspian oil and gas pipelines reach the Turkish terminal port of Ceyhan, rather than the Russian network. Intense negotiations are afoot between Israel Turkey, Georgia, Turkmenistan and Azarbaijan for pipelines to reach Turkey and thence to Israel’s oil terminal at Ashkelon and on to its Red Sea port of Eilat. From there, supertankers can carry the gas and oil to the Far East through the Indian Ocean. Aware of Moscow’s sensitivity on the oil question, Israel offered Russia a stake in the project but was rejected. Last year, the Georgian president commissioned from private Israeli security firms several hundred military advisers, estimated at up to 1,000, to train the Georgian armed forces in commando, air, sea, armored and artillery combat tactics. They also offer instruction on military intelligence and security for the central regime. Tbilisi also purchased weapons, intelligence and electronic warfare systems from Israel. These advisers were undoubtedly deeply involved in the Georgian army’s preparations to conquer the South Ossetian capital Friday. In recent weeks, Moscow has repeatedly demanded that Jerusalem halt its military assistance to Georgia, finally threatening a crisis in bilateral relations. Israel responded by saying that the only assistance rendered Tbilisi was “defensive.” This has not gone down well in the Kremlin. Therefore, as the military crisis intensifies in South Ossetia, Moscow may be expected to punish Israel for its intervention |
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| Wil | Aug 9 2008, 11:34 AM Post #4 |
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Georgia declares state of war with Russia * Story Highlights * Georgian parliament declares state of war declared with Russia over South Ossetia * Russia says its paratroopers entering capital of South Ossetia * Cities across Georgia being bombed early Saturday * Russia's Interfax news agency said 2,000 people killed in South Ossetia capital TBLISI, Georgia (CNN) -- Georgia's parliament Saturday approved a request by President Mikhail Saakashvili's to impose a "state of war," as the conflict between Georgia and Russia escalated, Georgian officials said. A burning appartment building, damaged by a Russian airstrike is seen the northern Georgian town of Gori. Saakashvili accused Russia of launching an unprovoked full-scale military attack against his country, including targeting civilian homes, while Russian officials insist their troops were protecting people from Georgia's attacks on South Ossetia, a breakaway Georgian region that borders Russia. Russia's Interfax news agency said the death toll was at least 2,000 killed in the capital of South Ossetia and claimed the city has been destroyed. Separatist-backed South Ossetian sources reported that about 1,600 people have died and 90 have been wounded in provincial capital Tskhinvali since Russian forces entered the territory Thursday. Georgia said the overall death toll would be closer to 100. Georgian officials said Russia has mobilized its Black Sea fleet off the coast of Abkhazia, another breakaway Georgian province. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin arrived Saturday in Vladikavkaz, near Russia's border with Georgia, Russia's Interfax reported. Meanwhile, President George Bush, speaking from Beijing, called for an immediate halt to the violence, a stand-down by all troops, and an end to the Russian bombings. Video Watch Bush express concerns over situation » The Georgian "state of war" order is not a formal declaration of war, and stops short of declaring martial law, according to Georgian officials who described it to CNN. It gives Saakashvili powers he would not ordinarily have, such as issuing curfews, restricting the movement of people, or limiting commercial activities, those officials said. It places the government on a 24-hour alert, said Georgian National Security Council Secretary Alexander Lomaia during a conference call with reporters. Saakashvili asked Western leaders to pressure Russia to agree to an immediate cease-fire, which he said his country would willingly observe first. "We are dealing with absolutely criminal and crazy acts of irresponsible and reckless decision makers, which is on the ground producing dramatic and tragic consequences," Saakashvili said Saturday afternoon. A White House spokesman said President Bush spoke Saturday evening to Saakashvili and Russian President Medvedev. The war, Saakashvili said, "is not about South Ossetia. It has never been in the first place. It is about destroying a small democratic nation aspiring to live in peace, freedom and liberty." "This unprovoked, long-time-ago-planned invasion and aggression must stop," he said. Russia, with a population of 146 million, is trying to destroy his country of 4.6 million people, he said, comparing it to the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. "I think what is at stake here is the post-Cold War order," Saakashvili said. Don't Miss * Bush, Putin discuss Georgia fighting * Understanding Georgia's territorial turmoil * Georgia orders cease fire, offers talks Inna Gagloyeva, spokeswoman for the South Ossetian Information and Press Committee, told Russia's Interfax news agency that Tskhinvali was being "massively shelled" with artillery guns. Video Watch images of crashed Georgian war plane » It was unclear which side was in control of that city on Saturday. The Georgians said fighting raged, but the Russians said they had "liberated" the city. "Battalion task forces have fully liberated Tskhinvali of Georgian armed forces and started pushing Georgian units out of the area of responsibility of the peacekeeping forces," said General Vladimir Boldyrev, commander of the Russian Ground Forces, in an interview with Interfax. Colonel-General Anatoly Nogovitsyn, a spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry, told a news conference that the Russian paratroopers will "implement the operation of enforcing peace" on both sides. Nogovitsyn also confirmed that Georgians had shot down two Russian aircraft. Saakashvili said his military has shot down 10 Russian bombers. Russia said the troops were also reinforcing the Russian peacekeepers already in South Ossetia. "Our peacekeepers, along with reinforcement units, are currently conducting an operation to force the Georgian side to accept peace," Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said at the Kremlin. "They are also responsible for protecting the population." Interfax said 15 peacekeepers were killed in the Friday attack by Georgian troops. Russia has opened a criminal probe into their deaths, Interfax reported. Georgia, a former Soviet Republic, is a pro-Western ally of the United States intent on asserting its authority over South Ossetia and Abkhazia. which both have strong Russian-backed separatist movements.Video Watch Georgian minister describe fighting in South Ossetia » Russia moved troops into South Ossetia early Friday after Georgia launched an operation in the breakaway region when its unilateral cease-fire was met with what it said was artillery fire from separatists that killed 10 people, including peacekeepers and civilians. Russia charged that Georgia had targeted its peacekeepers stationed in the region. Medvedev said Saturday that Georgia must be held responsible for the situation in South Ossetia. "The people responsible for this humanitarian disaster need to be held liable for what they have done," Medvedev said. He said the humanitarian problems were caused by "the aggression launched by the Georgian side against the South Ossetian civilians and Russian peacekeepers." Russian officials said more than 30,000 refugees have left South Ossetia and crossed into Russia over the past two days, since fighting began, Interfax reported. Maia Kardava, a Red Cross spokeswoman in the Georgian capital of Tbilisi was unable to provide refugee or casualty figures Saturday morning because she said aid workers were still gathering information and visiting hospitals in South Ossetia and western Georgia. Russian forces bombed several targets in Georgia on Saturday, according to Kardava and the British Foreign Office, which advised against all nonessential travel to Georgia. Russian aircraft bombarded military and civilian targets the port town of Poti, on Georgia's Black Sea coast, Kardava and British and Georgian officials said. Eight Georgians were killed in the port town, Georgian officials said. In the town of Senaki, just inland from Poti, Russian forces damaged a railway line, a military base, and a center housing civilians who fled from nearby Abkhazia. Military bases at Vaziani and Marneuli also came under attack, the British Foreign Office said, and Russian aircraft bombed the Georgian town of Gori, about 35 miles northwest of Tbilisi, Georgian officials said. Inside South Ossetia, civilians have been without water, electricity, and basic services for more than a day, Kardava said. She said the Red Cross was unable to reach colleagues based in Tskhinvali because their phones had lost power and they were huddled in bomb shelters. Also Saturday, the commander of Georgian troops stationed in Iraq said the 2,000 soldiers there will be withdrawn from Iraq "very soon." advertisement Colonel Bondo Maisuradze said the United States would provide the transport to get them out of Iraq. He said he had no time frame for the move. Saakashvili told CNN Friday that the troops were needed in Georgia to defend against the Russian military. http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/09/georgia.ossetia/index.html |
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| METHUSELAH | Aug 9 2008, 04:21 PM Post #5 |
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I've been waiting & watching since June 2007 for the current scenario in the Caucasus region to develop and dovetail with the coming destruction of Damascus and war with Persia (Iran). We're living in awesome times and are truly on the brink of TEOTWAWKI...
Edited by METHUSELAH, Aug 9 2008, 04:24 PM.
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| lionschild | Aug 9 2008, 11:01 PM Post #6 |
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? I gotta know what this means. Meth you are usually so calm and I think I sense some concern here so I really want to know what you think we are on the brink of. The End Of The World As We Know It ???? |
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| METHUSELAH | Aug 10 2008, 12:11 AM Post #7 |
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yes lionschild, The news that most are either not hearing or not understanding has led me to believe that the birth pangs leading to the second advent of Jesus are increasing both in frequency and intensity. I base this opinion on the discernment given me by the Holy Spirit, which has been formed by longtime watchfulness and great patience. I believe the end of life as we've known it IS coming to a close and soon. I have had several eerily calm days in a row but the news Friday from the former Soviet Republic of Georgia was the straw that broke the camel's back, at least for me. I feel anticipation, even a degree of excitement, but no fear. May the Lord perform His certain and exacting justice and may my confessed sinfulness and unrelenting repentance be glorious in His sight. My prayer is the same for each of you, for those you love and for all who love and serve Jesus. Amen  TL Edited by METHUSELAH, Aug 10 2008, 12:15 AM.
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| Pinky1441 | Aug 10 2008, 12:20 AM Post #8 |
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METHUSELAH, You have always been calm when posting here or there. These new current events got me standing straight up. But with what you are saying...hmmmm.... |
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PINKY ..."In the latter days you will understand it perfectly." Jeremiah 23:20b | |
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| Banty Hen | Aug 10 2008, 04:04 PM Post #9 |
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Quote: "Last year, the Georgian president commissioned from private Israeli security firms several hundred military advisers, estimated at up to 1,000, to train the Georgian armed forces in commando, air, sea, armored and artillery combat tactics. They also offer instruction on military intelligence and security for the central regime." My neighbor across the street is a military man of high rank. I've only spoken to him once or twice, and I can't recall which branch of the service he is in. He lives alone. He spends a lot of time away from home, on training missions. Several months ago (last year?) he was gone for about 6 weeks. When he returned, I chatted with him briefly, and he said he was in GEORGIA, TRAINING PILOTS. I was puzzled about that, but didn't ask any questions. Now I'd REALLY like to ask him some questions, but he's been gone for a couple of weeks again. I've seen nothing mentioned that the UNITED STATES participated in training Georgia's military. Hmmm???? Edited by Banty Hen, Aug 10 2008, 04:05 PM.
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| dinosaur | Aug 10 2008, 05:19 PM Post #10 |
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ ". . . Georgia is a crucial link in a three country energy corridor vital to Western Europe's oil and gas supply. The £2 billion pipeline is the only major conduit for Central Asian resources not under Russian control. The Kremlin under Vladimir Putin, Russia's former president and now prime minister, used gas exports to Europe as a tool of foreign policy. Reduced supplies to eastern Europe forced Russia's neighbours to curtail pro-Western ambitions. Western Europe, especially Germany, is dangerously vulnerable to reduced supplies from Russia at times of political tension. . ." If this Georgian pipeline infrastructure is destroyed, many Europeans could panic because their reliance upon imported Russian fuels would increase. If America and Israel threaten to attack Iran, then Russia would be in a better position to blackmail European nations from interfering in order to aid American and Israeli military forces. |
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| METHUSELAH | Aug 10 2008, 05:49 PM Post #11 |
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Another perspective on the war in Georgia & Ossetia: RUSSIA BOMBS GEORGIA! 08.08.08 The latest dispatches seem to indicate that Russia is determined to decimate the region and has no interest in diplomacy, truce or even surrender at this point in time.  TL Edited by METHUSELAH, Aug 10 2008, 06:07 PM.
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| METHUSELAH | Aug 10 2008, 06:15 PM Post #12 |
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Also: THE FLEET POSITIONS ITSELF FOR WAR PART II This link provides perhaps the best geopolitical intel assessment I've read thus far concerning the time period between now and the end of September.  TL |
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| Wil | Aug 10 2008, 09:11 PM Post #13 |
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U.S.: Russia out to topple Georgian government The U.S. accused Russia of trying to overthrow the government of the former Soviet republic of Georgia, where Russian troops have been battling Georgian forces over the breakaway territory of South Ossetia. The crackling exchange, of a type rarely seen since the end of the Cold War, came as the U.N. Security Council held an emergency session. cnn.com |
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| Wil | Aug 10 2008, 11:48 PM Post #14 |
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http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080811/ap_on_re_as/bush_asia_20;_ylt=AlZ4LaWcZspD6vP4he2aKnj9xg8F Cheney: Russian action 'must not go unanswered' Sun Aug 10, 8:44 PM ET WASHINGTON - Vice President Dick Cheney says Russia's military actions in Georgia "must not go unanswered." Cheney spoke Sunday afternoon with Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili. "The vice president expressed the United States' solidarity with the Georgian people and their democratically elected government in the face of this threat to Georgia's sovereignty and territorial integrity," Cheney's press secretary, Lee Ann McBride, said. Cheney told Saakashvili "Russian aggression must not go unanswered, and that its continuation would have serious consequences for its relations with the United States, as well as the broader international community," McBride said. |
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| Kemer | Aug 11 2008, 12:18 AM Post #15 |
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I haven't been following this conflict between Georgia and Russia as much as others but is it a possibility that the USA might intervine and aid Georgia?? |
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"Not everyone who says to Me, 'Lord, Lord,' will enter the kingdom of heaven, but he who does the will of My Father who is in heaven will enter. Matthew 7:21 | |
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| Wil | Aug 11 2008, 07:37 AM Post #16 |
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That is the question Kemer and I think the answer tilts to yes when Russia does things like bomb oil pipelines as reported below: The Pipeline War: Russian bear goes for West's jugular By Svetlana Skarbo and Jonathan Petre Last updated at 1:00 PM on 10th August 2008 The war in Georgia escalated dangerously last night after Russian jets reportedly bombed a vital pipeline that supplies oil to the West. After a day of heightening international tensions, Georgian leaders claimed that the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which transports oil from the Caspian Sea to Turkey, had been attacked. But it is thought the bombs missed their target. Their claims came after Russian jets struck deep into the territory of its tiny neighbour, killing civilians and ‘completely devastating’ the strategic Black Sea port of Poti, a staging post for oil and other energy supplies. Reports last night also said that Russia had bombed the international airport in Tbilisi. Georgian economic development minister Ekaterina Sharashidzne said: ‘This clearly shows that Russia has targeted not just Georgian economic outlets but international economic outlets as well.’ The pipeline is 30 per cent owned by BP and supplies 1 per cent of the world’s oil needs, pumping up to a million barrels of crude per day to Turkey. It is crucial to the world’s volatile energy market and the only oil and gas route that bypasses Russia’s stranglehold on energy exports from the region. As President Bush led the West in intensifying pressure on Russia to halt the bombing in Georgia last night, the two countries were edging closer to full-scale war over their conflicting claims for disputed territory. blazing apartment in Gori Under attack: Georgian soldiers in the town of Gori sprint past a block of flats destroyed by a Russian bomber Georgia’s President Mikheil Saakashvili called for a ceasefire and accused Moscow of mounting an unprovoked invasion that put ‘the entire post-Cold War order of Europe and the world at stake’. But Moscow said that the conflict could not be resolved unless Georgia withdrew from its breakaway region of South Ossetia. The alarming developments followed a second day of drama and bloodshed in the pro-Western country in which: • Russian jets widened the offensive by bombing the central Georgian town of Gori – Joseph Stalin’s birthplace – in an attack on military targets that Georgian authorities claimed killed 60 civilians, and attacked the port of Poti. • Georgia claimed that Russian troops had opened a new front by moving into another disputed province, Abkhazia, which has also suffered from ethnic tensions. • Georgia declared a state of war, recalled all its 2,000 troops from Iraq and ordered a mass call-up with reservists being sent to the war zone to ‘defend the motherland’. • Russia claimed that it had ‘completely liberated’ the capital of South Ossetia Tskhinvali – a claim denied by Georgia – after flying in elite troops in an operation Moscow said was intended to force Georgia into a ceasefire. • Georgia claimed to have shot down 12 Russian combat aircraft – but Moscow confirmed that only two planes were missing. • Georgia may pull its 35-strong Olympic team out of the Beijing games because of the Russian military attacks, the country’s National Olympic Committee said. georgian mourning The forces of the two countries first clashed on Friday after Moscow sent hundreds of troops and armed convoys across the border into South Ossetia to repel a Georgian attack on rebels allied to Moscow. Almost 40,000 refugees have already fled to Russia from the fighting, threatening a humanitarian catastrophe. Tskhinvali was said to have been ‘almost destroyed’ in onslaughts by both sides. Most of the 70,000 South Ossetians hold Russian passports and are allied to Moscow, while Georgia is an ally of the US and has applied to join Nato. Russian bombers yesterday widened the offensive to force Georgian troops back from South Ossetia by bombing. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1043185/The-Pipeline-War-Russian-bear-goes-Wests-jugular.html# |
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| Kemer | Aug 11 2008, 09:00 AM Post #17 |
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I guess the way "I" see it is...Russia bombing this vital pipeline that supplies oil to the West will sturr up some other countries...they might even get in on some of the action. The USA will then intervine...but for some reason i feel that in the mist of all this, all this war will some how turn its self completely around and have its eyes targeted on America. (Just my thoughts) |
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"Not everyone who says to Me, 'Lord, Lord,' will enter the kingdom of heaven, but he who does the will of My Father who is in heaven will enter. Matthew 7:21 | |
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| Wil | Aug 11 2008, 02:14 PM Post #18 |
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If all the prophecies are correct knocking off the U.S. is definitely on their agenda. We'll see how it all works out. Russia/Israel from Joel Rosenberg Washington, D.C., August 11, 2008) -- Is anyone out there still hesitant to describe Vladmir Putin as a dangerous, destablizing Czar who is an enemy, not a friend, of the West? When Epicenter was first published in September 2006, some thought I was overstating Putin's threat to the free world. If anything, I was understating it. The last 96 hours have made that quite clear, has it not? Russian forces at this hour are still bombing the daylights out of the citizens of Georgia. They are still trying to overthrow Georgia's democratically-elected leaders. They are still trying to eliminate Georgia as a pipeline route for Caspian Sea oil flowing to the West. But controlling this former Soviet republic is not Moscow's highest objective. Putin and his Kremlin cronies want to control (if not own outright) Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Turkey, as well. They are Hell-bent on dominating all of the peoples of the Caucuses as part of a revived Russian imperialism that sees the future of the country inextricably tied to pushing southward and linking up with Islamic allies throughout the Middle East. And as I noted in Friday's Flash Traffic, Putin is unmistakably the man in charge, not President Dmitry Medvedev. Who else but Putin would have had the gall to sit there on Friday night at the (visually stunning) opening ceremonies of the Olympic Games in Beijing -- a time to celebrate international unity and cooperation -- smiling and glad-handing when he had just launched a war that has already killed more than 2,000 people? As I write this, we're having technical troubles with my weblog. I hope to post this and more updates on the Russia-Georgia crisis soon. |
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| worshipHim | Aug 11 2008, 04:58 PM Post #19 |
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Many things reported on here I did not know. My question is...is this the beginning of many things mentioned on ATN? I mean I am trying to figure out many things in the Lord. It seems many people are given many pieces of a puzzle. Fitting them together is a problem. |
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| chomesoon | Aug 12 2008, 04:33 AM Post #20 |
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Rosenberg is leaving out a critical piece of info. As Putin was sitting at the Olympics, it was the Georgian military which moved into S. Ossetia and killed the 2000 people. Russia then responded and will now take over all of Georgia. Putting out a piece of propaganda as Rosenberg just did to make America and Israel look like saints is wrong. I believe in telling the truth and he should too. |
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